As New Hampshire Goes, So Goes … What?

The History of the Phrase and Its Implications

The phrase "As New Hampshire goes, so goes the nation" has been used for over a century to describe the perceived influence of New Hampshire's primary election on the outcome of the presidential election. The phrase is often attributed to William McKinley, who won the Republican nomination in 1896 after winning the New Hampshire primary.

While the phrase has been used for many years, there is no clear evidence to support the claim that New Hampshire's primary election is a reliable predictor of the outcome of the presidential election. In fact, a study by the University of New Hampshire found that New Hampshire's primary election has only correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election 50% of the time since 1952.

This low success rate is likely due to the fact that New Hampshire's primary election is held relatively early in the election cycle, and many voters have not yet made up their minds about who they will support. Additionally, New Hampshire's electorate is not necessarily representative of the national electorate, so the results of the primary election may not be indicative of the outcome of the general election.

The 2020 Election and the Future of the Phrase

Despite the low success rate of New Hampshire's primary election in predicting the outcome of the presidential election, the phrase "As New Hampshire goes, so goes the nation" continues to be used by political pundits and commentators. This is likely due to the fact that the phrase is catchy and easy to remember, and it provides a convenient way to discuss the potential impact of the New Hampshire primary election.

However, it is important to remember that the phrase is just that - a phrase. It is not a scientific prediction, and it should not be taken as a guarantee of the outcome of the presidential election. In reality, the outcome of the presidential election is determined by a variety of factors, including the candidates themselves, the state of the economy, and the overall political climate.

Conclusion

The phrase "As New Hampshire goes, so goes the nation" is a catchy and easy-to-remember phrase that has been used for over a century to describe the perceived influence of New Hampshire's primary election on the outcome of the presidential election. However, there is no clear evidence to support the claim that New Hampshire's primary election is a reliable predictor of the outcome of the presidential election. The outcome of the presidential election is determined by a variety of factors, and the New Hampshire primary election is just one of many factors that may influence the outcome.