Poll: Ryan, Vance Neck-and-Neck in Ohio Senate Race

Tight race could have national implications for control of the Senate

Early voting numbers show high turnout for midterm elections

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan are locked in a tight race for Ohio's open U.S. Senate seat, according to a new poll released Monday.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, found Vance leading Ryan by just 2 points, 49% to 47%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The race is being closely watched nationally as one of a handful that could determine control of the Senate. Republicans need to gain just one seat to take control of the chamber, while Democrats need to defend every seat they currently hold.

The poll found that early voting numbers are high for a midterm election. As of Monday, more than 1.5 million Ohioans had already cast their ballots.

The poll also found that the race is being driven by party affiliation. Vance is winning among Republicans by a margin of 80% to 15%, while Ryan is winning among Democrats by a margin of 85% to 10%.

Independents are split, with 42% supporting Vance and 38% supporting Ryan.

The poll was conducted from October 27-30 among 1,000 likely voters in Ohio. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.